Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
